Every Decision is a Bet (What Bookmakers Teach Us About Predicting the Future)

A data-driven look at probabilities, calibration, and the hidden logic behind good decisions.

Every decision is a bet. Whether you're launching a product, choosing a job, or calling a play in sports, you're (knowingly or not) acting on an estimated probability: your belief that something will happen.

But here's the catch. We only observe what actually happened. One outcome, no reruns. So how can we evaluate the quality of a prediction (or a decis…